Jinxis
0
2202
105
As wallstreet posts "best week" and "best month" headlines while main street is getting absolutely rolled, this just goes to show that the majority of federal action is still primarily to "save the market" and ensure that private money will get the best prices and disgusting returns while continuing to limit the investment capacity of the average person.
When you can post record breaking unemployment and the market rallies at the same time, something is horribly broken.
As a result, we are probably going to experience some of the worst inflation we have seen in a long time by printing the most amount of debt America has ever had that no one will be able to repay. All to save investors. I can't decide if this is horribly funny or just sad. Either way, I can't wait to pay $5 for a loaf of bread.
In before FoRwArdLoOkInG
BenEngland
Buy bitcoin.
CPatricoo
See the job loss was expected so no one cares
HotsauceIsLethal
I mean ita already pretty damn close to $5 for bread.
ViVeriVeniversumVivusVici
Paul Krugman was on Bloomberg P&L and talked about why the stock market is rallying, like actually why and not emotional. I highly recommend
heeeeelllloooo
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2020-05-06/why-stocks-are-rising-while-economy-crashes-krugman-podcast
DeusExSpockina
The emotional drive of it makes me think it’s going to tank at some point in the next few months. The second wave or jobs not bouncing back.
ZAPZAPMOTHAFUCKA
We've been postponing a major recession/depression for a long time. It's going to catch up to us sooner or later.
haroldmann
Best quote I heard is that the Stock Market is social distancing from reality
mymidlifecrisiswasat23
And here’s what really is going to one up it; all the stimulus/emergency money, guess who’s going to pay for it down the road?Yep, you and i
Quietkitsune
I think it's been doing that for a while. Every once in a while someone notices, like when WeWork tried to go public
Jinxis
Lol that's pretty accurate it seems.
MrTical
The stock market is a graph of rich people’s feelings.
WarBearGrrrrrrr
That’s new? I thought started to happen in the 70’s with Champaign breakfasts to help start the day
haroldmann
bogus1983
Eh. Part of the "rally" is the market equalizing after overselling. The other part is unfounded optimism.
bogus1983
That's why we're just about halfway between the recent lows and highs.
wierdmedicine
This. It’s the savers who actually pay through inflation. Sucks but if you don’t want to get burned invest in a low cost index tracker...
wierdmedicine
And ride out the storm. And if you have zero savings then, with no jest. Good luck.
sackofmeat
"Dead Cat Bounce"
ryry1237
More of an explosive launchoff than a bounce.
ImgurVet
Also a funny comedy act!
Seggs
That's my favorite song from the cowboy bebop ost!
OmnipotentBeing
But, is Schrodinger's cat really dead or alive? Should we open the box?
pianoNoodleTraveler
Last time someone mentioned a dead cat bounce was the 2018 December selloff. Their prediction did not happen.
Peynus
That was a (mostly) human panic selling. This time, tens of millions globally are out of a job and GDP will be 10-20% lower.
yourbassist
Not sure you can call it that in this time span. Market has been pushing up since the last week of March. Bull trap at this point.
desolatorx
Yeah I'm 90% liquid cash right now, not touching this market with a 10 foot pole.
wargames
bond market for that sweet sweet 0.2% rate
yourbassist
I liquidated half of my mutual fund to buy back in. Been hit or miss across the board for me.
thekeyofe
TIL a new phrase.
mustangcharlie
Note that it's not being used in correct context here. It really means a short upturn following an extended slide, followed by another slide
thekeyofe
Yeah, I looked it up. You're right, it doesn't fit here, but I still thought it was an interesting new thing to learn.
juthigpen
They lower int. rates to help companies borrow money to stay afloat. I think people forget that mainstreet's retirement is in there too.
joepineapplesindrag
record breaking employment?
gaybro
To be fair, it could be at a record-breaking low.
Jinxis
Lol oops. Fixed. XD
ImNotStalkingYouBTWYoureOutOfMilk
Record breaking employment of the Uns
xizar
Was better when we had employment of the League of Nations.
Pepperfart
Are you referring to QE ? For what I understood, debt is bought to allow the interest to be low so that loans remain affordable.
skellumqt
Your understanding is correct
CuddlyPervert
It's not so much a rally as the initial panic wearing off.
sjbrooksy7447
I hope that November doesn't see an even larger wave of infection, but I think the next few years will be difficult.
pianoNoodleTraveler
I dont know is a really important tag. Understanding the financial system and economics is mind boggling complex. Far to much to unpack here
SlothOfDanger
I'm with you
Sealab2021
Big investors are trying to get fire insurance on a house that’s burning down. Won’t say it’s on fire until they do.
Sealab2021
Also, trying to sell the house to a sucker in the meantime
illogicalphallusies
literally EVERYONES pensions are tied into the stockmarket, including Old Age Security or whatever the US calls it. if they didnt bail out1/
illogicalphallusies
2/wallstreet, then every old person in america would immediately lose 100% of their income. Its an Abhorrent system and it shouldnt exist
illogicalphallusies
im talking about the way the pension system is setup, not the stockmarket..and shouldnt exist "as is" not that it shouldnt exist at all
pianoNoodleTraveler
Social security can only invest in special US bonds. They have no private exposure.
bigblindguy
The best part is that after you pay for your groceries, you can use the wheelbarrow you brought the cash in to carry your food home.
CptRobotNinja
This is going to be way, way worse than it has to be because of who we have decided to be as a nation
lcranston1930
The old joke is, guy brings wheelbarrow full of money to buy a hammer. Goes back to check on it, money's there, wheelbarrow is gone
SoupCanMan
Well, for healthy inflation, it means you can pay your debts easier. But not for really bad inflation.
Shigoshi
Just wait until the wheelbarrow IS the cash for the bread
LittleWheelsAndCactuss
Legitimate issue in Venusuala from what I remember hearing
Sealab2021
Money is not moving. They print it, big banks hold it and, with any luck, deflation gives them even more spending power.
MirTheDragon
Imagine if the student loans dont adjust to inflation
KismetCrew
Why do you need a wheelbarrow for a single load of bread?
blackholevoid10011
The real question is why aren't you better at math!
KismetCrew
The implication was that a whole wheelbarrow of cash would only buy a single loaf of bread, and you wouldn't need it to carry food home.
blackholevoid10011
Yes but you see this was a...... Never mind I get it thank you.
KismetCrew
Were you saying that one wheelbarrow of cash wouldn't be enough?
bigblindguy
Wheelbarrow is for the cash, I only went for a single bottle of milk, the 2nd wheelbarrow of cash arrives in a bit.
KismetCrew
Look at the big spender over here!
goodbyeitwasfunwhileitlasted
Ah, post war Germany. It offers so many ways to look back and say "let's fucking avoid that".
JokerVonDoloh
Yes, let's avoid having land devastated and also having huge debt in nominated in hard or foreign currency. Those are necessary conditions.
bigblindguy
That history is a optional class in many systems astounds me: surely knowing what is gonna happen next is pretty key to life?
HandoB4Javert
'Elect an egotistical man with an outlandish hair style and you probably get something like fascism'
justsomeyahoo
When an Economy gets that bad, what can be done to fix it? Ya know, without getting all dictator-y, rampaging war, and screwing the lil guy
GenStrike
A general strike would go a long ways.
DooganTheTerrible
Me trying to avoid reading the asinine comments on this one.
We11thatwasC00L
Can't really see the pain in his face until you open the full image, btw is that Tom Holland?
Inepthuntr
This decoupling is necessary - as soon as wall street stops getting money, we hit a (probably major) recession, and that needs to come 1/
whitewinds
Depression*
Antithisus
That bailout should have gone straight to the consumer. They would have spent it, not hoard it, like those that actually got the bailout
captainclutch
Speak for yourself, my bailout went into my retirement and paid some debt off
DARfuckinROCKS
Talking about corporate bailouts not stimulus checks.
Antithisus
How many billions did you receive in bailout? Btw, your cr card debt is deferred PMT on consumables.
DrFunkinstein
Then you shouldn’t have gotten it.
captainclutch
I was talking about the $1200 stimulus. I guess not technically a bailout
Inepthuntr
When we're ready, not now - think of it like flattening the infectivity curve for cov19
dreadpiratekirk
Thank you
bomboy23
What indicators identify that we are ready for it, just curious?
Inepthuntr
That's hard to say - I'm not an economist - but probably a more normal fiscal climate, such that our established mitigation strats can be 1/
Inepthuntr
Applied in a predictable way - I'd probably keep a close eye on unemployment levels, tbh
Inepthuntr
As they drop back to normal, the hope is that the stock market recovers naturally, but if it doesn't, that's probably when the drop'll occur
Calthebold
What is the equivalent of an overcrowded ICU in your analogy?
DickVergaman
Inability of viable firms to secure capitol or credit and dying unnecessarily.
damnshithellfart
Stock market has been increasingly devoriced from any rational valuation measure since 2008 (at least). It's just incredibly obvious now.
wongtonpoop
Rigged AF. I was studying the forex market 2 months ago thinking its time to invest then the pandemic happened. The numbers dont add up.
sqabbit
So are you keeping your money in or taking it out
RussianTroll101
As someone with 25-30 years until retirement, I’ll leave it in. If interest rates ever go up, I’ll consider putting it in CDs.
wierdmedicine
Stay in, buy index trackers or blue chip dividend paying stock with a strong balence sheet who will weather the storm at discount
Jinxis
I have sold some positions, but there are solid dividend payers that I will be keeping; green energy, utilities, communications
Evanrudeplz
That's because it's all doofus has got these days
jesasterous
Trump has prioritized the economy over American lives. Billionaires are gonna billionaire
thehumanoidsarecoming
Now get these peasants back to work already. My house servants need their hair done.
whodat54321
'The markets' are driven by computer based trading. if stock & bonds=unpaid debt, money has been imaginary for a long, long time
BuckRavers
In the USA, since '76 with the removal of the gold standard. Since then value seems to be based completely on Confidence & relative GDP #'s
CheekusClapicus
Insert cheeky Fiat car .gif
BuckRavers
Also, I am by no means an expert, so if there's anything you could add I'm happy to check it out :D
phosphene
Lately GDP has been out of the equation. With low money velocity GDP tanks. Right now USD on balance sheets is pouring into financial assets
skellumqt
computer based trading is a bit misleading, since a lot of people mentally translate that to "not tied to fundamentals somehow"
Jinxis
Well to be fair stocks frequently disconnect from fundamentals. Too many piling into the same space creating absurd multiples. See SHOP
skellumqt
Sure but thats not necessarily computer derived. traders being irrational/trading on momentum etc happened before, it's just easier now
JLaP01001
1 in 5 people are unemployed, Dow is up 300 points. It’s all bull and the people are beginning to figure it out.
Sealab2021
People wont figure it out until the big investors are positioned to profit off a crash. That’s what has been going on.
Splinthar
Dow isn't inflation adjusted.
cadymGiraffeVillain
The best explaination I have heard is that the socks market is there expectation if how much wealth the rich can extract.
cadymGiraffeVillain
With all this surplus labor, they expect to extract a great deal
kittyanya
Adam Ruins Everything did an episode on it about the stocks and unemployment rates. DOW shows top 30 good companies. Drop and it's kicked.
imaxhighsky
cant find it on episode guide, could you tell me the season and episode please ? ths
kittyanya
Season 3 episode 11. Adam Ruins the Economy. Starts with why we can't have free tax filing, ends with manufacturing jobs are dead.
butsir
Maybe if you look at one day but it is down considerably from the ytd high
RelativeVelocity
It just seems to be waving like the tide, really
butsir
For sure. There is no real rationality in the market
ktrout30
300 points doesn’t mean a whole lot
DeltaLaw
Stocks are more emotionally driven than logically driven. Thats why tesla is worth what it is despite not posting profits until recently
skellumqt
only to an extent. The market can stay irrational for awhile, but not forever. and while tesla is overpriced, not posting profits is 1/2
skellumqt
Not inherently problematic on it's own, since stock prices are supposed to account for future earnings as well
DeltaLaw
Also sorry, don't want to be that guy but we're at 14.7% so 3 in 20. Rounding stats like that has always felt misleading to me. 14.7% is
DeltaLaw
Super alarming considering we doubled in such a short span. 2008 peaked at around 11% and 14.7% is the highest for decades
comacomacomacomachameleon
Stocks are anticipated future earnings. Investors think it will get better soon, not that it's good now.
Sealab2021
That’s a cute sales pitch designed to do one thing: get some sucker to hold the bag.
penzick
Investors know that many companies are re-envisioning their biz w/ far fewer employees. Meaning huge savings which means bigger profits.
WardSharlow
Wait until wave 2!
md22mdrx
Gambling. It’s legal gambling.
skellumqt
Only in the sense that predicting future outcomes is "gambling"
md22mdrx
Isn’t that the definition of gambling? If you put money on a team, you’re predicting that outcome.
SquidJesus
It depends. If I predict that when I press the spacebaritwillfuckthisistheworsttiming.
gtmiller
They think they are getting another bailout
justsomeinternetperson
Lets not act like it's just shitty Trump giving our money away. Obama bailed these scumbags with our money too! We need a revolution!
Hypnomancy
Obama was a bad president but that bailout didn't happen under him :p
IDontKnowWhatToDoAnymoreAndImTired
Uh, no, he didn't. Or are you going to blame TARP, which was passed in October 2008, on Obama?
PabloDiabloman
Obama wasn't in office yet for the bank bailout in 2008. Care to try again?
jmo341
Buy Bitcoin
We11thatwasC00L
If you took this advice when it was posted you are doing very well by now
AncientSilverback
You're wasting your time. Imgur is permabear on bitcoin and downvotes anything btc related. Sucks for them. The gains are real.
jmo341
Doubled since the stock market crash smh
pleaseconsiderthatImightbejoking
It's really not that complicated. Unemployment figures report the past, the stock market speculates on the future. These figures were 1/2
pleaseconsiderthatImightbejoking
expected the instant the gov announced they would be requiring the majority of companies to close due to the virus, and so the market had2/3
pleaseconsiderthatImightbejoking
corrected for it in Febuary and March.3/3
Sealab2021
That’s a sales pitch to get people to keep markets up and buy crap while the large players position themselves to profit off a crash.
pleaseconsiderthatImightbejoking
If it crashs again like it did in feb then the stock market will be the least of your worries.
Sealab2021
What do I have to be worried about?
YourIceCreamMan
Unpopular opinion. Yes. Rich people are in The Stock Market. But the Majority are Working People with private retirement plans.
juthigpen
100%. People don't understand the market. They say teachers are underpaid, but don't care if their pension goes to $0.
LeakyValve
Ppl can't tell the difference between owners and executives
Jinxis
For sure, and no one is saying people pensions should die. But this V sling shot mostly only benefits traders. Volume has been quite low.
juthigpen
"All to save investors" = Those investors include pension managers. "Save the market" = The market holds middle class retirement.
wierdmedicine
Hoping for a a slow recovery so I can invest at reasonable prices with dollar cost averaging
wierdmedicine
But this is betting on recession, which sucks.
override367
We are not going to experience "the worst inflation we've ever seen". Please go read some basic economics primers, there are plenty.
DooganTheTerrible
https://imgur.com/tdc6X7D
Threewisemen
override367
The money isn't being spent. The CPI doesn't move over money going into stocks.
override367
The suggested 2k/month stimulus WOULD cause some % inflation, but that isn't a bad thing, we could stand to have a bit more inflation-
mardukkur
Insofar as it would only be replacing temporarily lost pre-existing spending it probably wouldn't cause any inflation over the short term.
uhunuhtrgynu
Which is part of the problem. Inflation used to be a way to reduce the real cost of debt. Now it's not.
uhunuhtrgynu
So all the money the gov's are splashing carries interest, the more splashed the more interest. the more interest the more debt...
uhunuhtrgynu
Sooner or later, that becomes unsustainable. When, I don't think anyone knows, but at some point.
override367
Well, no, first of all the Fed isn't "the government", and second, the Fed tends to make a return on liquidity loans